Possibility and understanding in history and the social sciences 1991by the cambridge sociologist geoffrey hawthorn, the counterfactual history was carefully introduced into the academia. Counterfactual thinking is a concept in psychology that involves the human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already occurred. Virtual history features contributions from talented, imaginative and wellregarded historians, led by niall ferguson. The history of the house of rothschild 1998, the cash nexus.
Counterfactuals, causal independence and conceptual circularity. Alternatives and counterfactuals 1997, the pity of war. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. It is, at the very root, the idea of conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, in order to understand what did happen. Xps is as yet the most serious alternative to pdf that has come to market. Essays on the international history of modern europe, eds. Alternatives and counterfactuals, edited by niall ferguson. A person may imagine how an outcome could have turned out differently, if the antecedents that led to that event were different. Leading historians on twelve what ifs of history london. Counterfactual history, also sometimes referred to as virtual history, is a form of historiography. African studies american studies ancient near east and egypt art history asian studies book history and cartography biblical studies classical. Mar, 2014 counterfactual history is misguided and outdated, as the first world war debate shows richard j evans thu mar 2014 06. Limitations of this method are associated with the inherently subjective process and the certaintyofhindsight effect.
Counterfactuals is david lewis forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrary to fact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds. Counterfactuals university of california, berkeley. Second world war, the direct tax base was very narrow, with virtually no manual. Niall ferguson has written several fine books that are mustreads for educated people.
This means in order to assess the truth value of a counterfactual we have to make an assessment about. It is, at the very root, the idea of conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, in order to understand what. Alternatives and counterfactuals or any other file from books category. He is also a senior research fellow of jesus college, oxford university, and a senior fellow of the hoover institution, stanford university. A counterfactual thought occurs when a person modifies a factual prior event and then assesses the consequences of that change. Q is true just in case the world most similar to the actual world in which p is true is a world in which q is true.
Alternatives and counterfactuals, or a similar 2004 effort by andrew roberts, what might have been. Counterfactual history, also sometimes referred to as virtual history, is a form of historiography that attempts to answer what if questions known as counterfactuals. Why historians and everyone else should care about. This meaty, scholarly collection of essays by gifted. Here he deals with how the second world war could have come about. Counterfactual history is misguided and outdated, as the first world war debate shows richard j evans thu mar 2014 06.
For every individual, u, there is a function that specifies the state of u s infection under two hypothetical conditions. Simulational realismplaying as trying to remember in. Niall ferguson, author of the highly acclaimed the pity of war, leads the charge in this historically rigorous series of separate voyages into imaginary time and provides farreaching answers to these intriguing questions. Second, w 1 comes out closer to w 0 than w 3 does, by the priority of 1 over 2. Alternatives and counterfactuals, or a similar 2004 effort by. Hitler winning wwii, kennedy living, communism not collapsing. Alternatives and counterfactuals niall ferguson these include the pity of war on wwi, the war of the world about the major conflicts in the 20th century including a stunning chapter on the armed slave labor camp that was the soviet union, and this book virtual history on counterfactual or what if history. Isbn 97803303524 richard lebow, good history needs counterfactuals, in historically speaking, more theoretical. Alternatives and counterfactuals by niall ferguson. Schroeder, embedded counterfactuals and world war i as an unavoidable war, in paul w. Alternatives, counterfactuals, and the bible in biblical. Kornblith in their classic work, the rise of american civilization, charles a. Counterfactuals, causal independence and conceptual.
Jan 01, 2000 niall ferguson has written several fine books that are mustreads for educated people. Edited by niall ferguson new york, basic books, 1999 548 pp. He claims that in order to avoid such pitfalls, the essays in this book deal only with likely alternative possibilities. Specifying and exploring the counterfactuals implied by a causal claim forces one to be clear about 1 the precise delimitation of the event being explained, 2 the contrast space or set of alternative outcomes from which the event that occurred is explained, and 3 the type of causes one is looking for. If it had been the case that p, then it would have been the case that q is true at a world w just in case q is true at all the possible pworlds closest to w. Librarything is a cataloging and social networking site for booklovers. The counterfactual approach the history of what might have happened is a. Learning webbased virtual reality build and deploy webbased virtual reality.
Counterfactuals and explanation boris kment on the received view, counterfactuals are analyzed using the concept of closeness between possible worlds. Muses about history as the study where everything unexpected in its. There are a number of other file formats that achieve similar things as pdf. Virtual history by niall ferguson fatherland by robert harris the alteration by. Beard famously termed the civil war a second american revolution and in a strict sense, the first. When the german challenge came therefore, it found angloamerica unready. The counterfactuals the counterfactuals are daniel groll, andy flory, jason decker, brady lenzen, and mike fuerstein. Bruised and battered down the third album from the counterfactuals. Jan 23, 2020 while seemingly counterproductive to good history, the use of counterfactualism does engage the imaginationin fact this is many historians reasoning for keeping counterfactualism alive in scholarly studybut the real reasoning behind continuing its presence in argument and discussion is because counterfactuals appeal to laws, rationality. Alternatives and counterfactuals 1997, a collection of essays.
Alternatives and counterfactuals segal, eyal 20011201 00. Ferguson begins his introductory essay to this thoughtprovoking volume with the phrase, what if. Alternatives and counterfactuals by ferguson, niall isbn. One history is as good as another and with it the blurring of factual, counterfactual and fiction. Jun 05, 2017 counterfactual history, also sometimes referred to as virtual history, is a form of historiography that attempts to answer what if questions known as counterfactuals.
What are we to make of books such as niall fergusons pioneering 1997 collection, virtual history. The counterfactual conditional is the basis of experimental methods for establishing causality in the natural and social sciences, e. Sep 30, 2011 the role of using counterfactuals when searching for explanations has not received much attention in this literature. If the inline pdf is not rendering correctly, you can download the pdf file here. Fergusons ninetypage introduction is a brilliant manifestolike defense of the methodology of counterfactual history and offers a convincing justifica tion of the whole enterprise. Jan 01, 1997 virtual history isnt terrible and ferguson is only partwriter, editing together other counterfactual historians to create plausible alternate historiesbut he falls prey to the transport a i havent even rated some of his lesser works as they were just that boring. A counterfactual conditional abbreviated cf, is a conditional with a false ifclause. Fergusons brilliant 90page introduction doubles as a manifesto on the methodology of counterfactual history. Towards a chaotic theory of the past, in virtual history.
Counterfactuals and the second law1 barry loewer i will be discussing a kind of conditional or counterfactual typically expressed in english by. Add to my selection delete from my selection pdf version printerfriendly. Below i have listed some of them and try to explain the differences or similarities of these alternatives. Virtual history isnt terribleand ferguson is only partwriter, editing together other counterfactual historians to create plausible alternate historiesbut he falls prey to the transport a i havent even rated some of his lesser works as they were just that boring. The study of counterfactual speculation has increasingly engaged the interest of scholars in a wide range of domains such as philosophy, human geography. In virtual history, the oxford historian niall ferguson has brought together a dis. What links here related changes upload file special pages permanent link page. Counterfactuals are often crucial for theory building and interpretations, may provide analytical insight, help to acknowledge the role of chance, and can facilitate, in philip tetlocks words, learning from history. Alternatives and counterfactuals paperback 5 may 2011 by niall ferguson author visit amazons niall ferguson page. Bernstein new york law school published on hlaw january, 2000. The term counterfactual conditional was coined by nelson goodman in 1947, extending roderick chisholms 1946 notion of a contrarytofact conditional. Hamburg business and german politics in the era of inflation 18971927 1993, virtual history. In literature, the genre of alternative history has been used for a wide spectrum of purposes. The term counterfactual is defined by the merriamwebster dictionary as contrary to the facts.
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